Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 11.187830 13.758317 16.632402 20.062034 24.020229 28.422091 33.663623
2025-12-14 7.550558 10.818906 14.896745 20.260457 27.024690 35.164320 45.582342
2025-12-21 5.146896 8.429306 12.922726 19.313819 27.940394 38.940865 53.760640
2025-12-28 4.031103 7.389481 12.349872 19.852113 30.513314 44.699872 64.525649
2026-01-04 3.166699 6.469307 11.707180 20.081257 32.530883 49.712269 74.473229
2026-01-11 2.558881 5.792824 11.270378 20.473239 34.703529 54.962289 84.920614
2026-01-18 2.124335 5.300467 11.017413 21.060199 37.134080 60.638282 96.165022
2026-01-25 1.644197 4.583887 10.245413 20.681051 38.002828 64.045002 104.299588
2026-02-01 1.344660 4.150362 9.890305 20.921698 39.807282 68.867137 114.624425
2026-02-08 1.037693 3.600111 9.208625 20.488034 40.444467 71.908463 122.409791
2026-02-15 0.780130 3.074917 8.469881 19.837810 40.627666 74.204680 129.117275
2026-02-22 0.660475 2.876503 8.377172 20.374826 42.850100 79.781023 140.987263
2026-03-01 0.491583 2.475997 7.794521 19.958436 43.496156 83.071805 149.821618
2026-03-08 0.388112 2.235967 7.539095 20.176326 45.312272 88.395817 162.126008
2026-03-15 0.263535 1.835630 6.785420 19.234059 44.886437 89.939667 168.458715
2026-03-22 0.214931 1.710066 6.719948 19.770709 47.279300 96.341503 182.827672
2026-03-29 0.167697 1.554316 6.531664 19.999127 49.076495 101.781853 195.801635
2026-04-05 0.133429 1.435557 6.421591 20.389859 51.209484 107.885139 210.059167
2026-04-12 0.108974 1.350876 6.395668 20.974959 53.763837 114.826568 225.922575
2026-04-19 0.076089 1.168752 6.002433 20.597012 54.302213 118.168125 235.824253
2026-04-26 0.058020 1.069309 5.861390 20.836896 56.138080 123.920581 249.982492
2026-05-03 0.038642 0.918884 5.486080 20.404608 56.495817 126.955729 259.553694
2026-05-10 0.023772 0.769992 5.057708 19.756459 56.318364 128.963796 267.381916